That China will become the largest economy on the planet, surpassing the US, is a fact of the matter for much of public opinion. In fact, if it continues on its current trajectory, the Chinese economy will overtake the US in about ten years.

However, for Bloomberg Economics, this is not set in stone. Bloomberg's macroeconomic analysis division has analyzed three broad scenarios, incorporating the risks facing the Chinese economy.

The biggest risk is that the Asian giant faces a debt crisis, one of the biggest nightmares for the authorities in Beijing. The rapid growth of indebtedness in China since 2008 is a cause for concern, and the recent financial crisis of the Evergrande real estate company was a sign that the risks are real. According to the analysis, China has a similar level of indebtedness to the US, measured as loans to the non-financial sector relative to GDP, but with a much lower level of per capita income, which puts the Asian giant in a difficult position. In this regard, Bloomberg Economics recalls that it was a debt crisis that ended the race to overtake the US as the world's largest economy.

Bloomberg's intermediate scenario assumes a slowdown in growth caused by several factors: an aging population, increased international isolation (the trade war with the U.S. continues, creating barriers to trade growth and technology exchange) and a deterioration in government effectiveness for political reasons. In this case, Bloomberg points out, China's economy could catch up with that of the U.S., but remain tied going forward.