May 3, 2024 - 2 min

A new copper boom in sight?

The price of the red metal reached US$10,000 per tonne in April, but this does not seem to be enough to trigger the necessary investments to meet the expected demand in the medium and long term.

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In mid-April, the copper world gathered in Santiago for the annual Copper Week organized by CESCO. The meeting took place at a key moment for the industry: the price of the metal rising like froth and a super-million dollar bid by BHP to acquire rival AngloAmerican were the most dramatic signs for an industry that needs to radically increase its production but faces a host of difficulties.

The backdrop is the growing demand for copper expected from the electrification of the economy, in a context in which it has become increasingly difficult to build new copper mines due to the scarcity of quality deposits, the growing socio-environmental opposition generated by mining activity and the difficulties of the so-called junior mining companies in accessing financing to develop explorations.

According to calculations by CRU, one of the world's leading mining commodities consultancies, by 2035 primary copper demand will be 26.1 million tons, but expected production from existing mines is 16.6 million tons and there are only new projects committed to producing 1.5 million tons. Closing that 8 million ton ne gap will require new mine investments of US$150 billion between 2025 and 2032, according to CRU.

For some industry experts, the geological resources exist, but what is lacking is financing. As these are long-term investments - the development of a new mine takes years or even more than a decade - the risks are great. Olivia Markham, co-manager of Blackrock's World Mining Fund, estimates that miners will need a price of US$12,000 per tonne of copper to invest in new projects, according to Bloomberg. The last time copper reached US$10,000 per ton, mining companies distributed dividends instead of investing in new projects.