Fynsa
This week, the Central Bank reported that March's Imacec rose 7.2% y/y, exceeding our estimates (5.5% y/y) and those of the market, reversing the downward trend we had observed in previous months. It should be noted that, until this figure was released, the economy was showing clear signs of slowdown, which had amplified in February.
With this monthly variation, and pending ratification when the National Accounts for the first quarter are published, activity would have grown 7.9% y/y during the first three months of 2022, slightly above our projection and that of the Central Bank, as stated in the communiqué following the Monetary Policy Meeting. In any case, despite the positive margin data (+1.6% month-on-month) it was not possible to prevent the growth rate from remaining in negative territory (-1.6% q/q annualized), which would mark the first condition for a technical recession in Q2 2022. It should be noted that this concept, as its name suggests, is only a statistical condition that, in order to be met, requires two consecutive quarters of declines compared to the immediately preceding quarter. It does not necessarily correspond to the more popular concept of "recession," with year-on-year declines in GDP, rising unemployment, falling prices, etc.
In disaggregated terms, the mining component of the Imacec experienced a 2.4% y/y decline, which had a negative impact of 0.31 pp on the total indicator, lower than that observed in previous months. This was due to an increase in the margin of 6.6% month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms versus February.
For its part, the non-mining component grew 8.8% y/y, contributing positively 7.48 pp to the aggregate Imacec. What was truly remarkable was that all sectors showed increases in margins, which is a significant change from what we saw in previous months. While this does not necessarily mark a trend, it is at least a respite from the sharp slowdown that had been occurring in local activity. We highlight the good performance of Services (0.7% m/m, 0.35 pp impact) and Industry (3.5% m/m, 0.29 pp impact). It is possible that, to a lesser extent, we are also seeing a stabilization in the trade sector, after significant declines in recent months.
In any case, we do not believe that the positive surprise will continue to repeat itself, especially considering the changes in the external scenario, added to the local slowdown itself. It would be more like a brief respite. Along these lines, we forecast a 7.5% y/y increase for April's Imacec and maintain our growth projection for 2022 at 1.7%.
