Fynsa
This week, the Central Bank reported that the Imacec for March increased 7.2% YoY, above our estimates (5.5% YoY) and those of the market, changing the downward trend that we had observed in previous months. Let us recall that, until this figure, the economy had shown clear signs of a decelerationwhich had been amplified in February.
With this monthly variation, and pending ratification when the National Accounts for the first quarter are published, activity would have grown 7.9% YoY during the first three months of 2022, activity would have grown 7.9% YoY during the first three months of 2022, somewhat above our projection and that of the Central Bank, according to the statement issued after the first quarter of 2022.This was somewhat above our projection and that of the Central Bank, as stated in the communiqué following the Monetary Policy Meeting. In any case, despite the positive data at the margin (+1.6% m/m) it was not possible to prevent the growth rate from remaining in negative territory (-1.6% annualized m/m), which would mark the first condition of the year (-1.6% annualized m/m).This would mark the first condition for us to see a technical recession in 2Q22. Let us remember that this concept, as its name indicates, is only a statistical condition that, in order to be fulfilled, requires observing two consecutive quarters of declines with respect to the immediately preceding quarter. It does not necessarily have the more popular concept of "recession", with year-on-year falls in GDP, rising unemployment, falling prices, etc.
In disaggregated terms, the mining component of the Imacec fell by 2.4% YoY, which meant a negative impact of 0.31 pp in the total indicator, lower than that observed during previous months.This was lower than that observed in previous months. This was due to an increase in the margin of 6.6% m/m in seasonally adjusted terms versus February.
The non-mining component grew 8.8% YoY, with a positive impact of 7.48 pp on the aggregate Imacec.. Something really remarkable was that all sectors showed increases in the margin, which is a relevant change versus what was seen in previous months. While this does not (necessarily) mark a trend, at least it is a breath of fresh air, at least it is a respite from the sharp deceleration that had been occurring in local activity.. We highlight the good performance of Services (0.7% m/m, incidence 0.35 pp) and Industry (3.5% m/m, incidence 0.29 pp). It is possible that, to a lesser extent, a stabilization is also being observed in the commerce sector, after important decreases during the last months.
In any case, we do not believe that the positive surprise will continue to be repeated, especially considering the changes in the external scenario, added to the local deceleration itself. It would be more like a short summer.. Along these lines, we forecast an increase of 7.5% YoY for the April Imacec and maintain our growth projection for 2022 of 1.7%.
