Fynsa
September's growth figures left a very bitter taste. The null growth that was known on that occasion -which was corrected to 0.3% YoY later in the Q3 National Accounts- was the warning that some needed to realize that growing well above 2.0% during 2024 was an almost impossible task. We could say that we had said it a long time ago and that we had earned the nickname of "usual bad predictors", but what's the point.
Thus, the 2.3% YoY advance in the Imacec during October gave some respite to those who were still optimistic. Although supported by two additional working days (which explain a little less than one point of the month's growth), the most relevant aspect was the seasonally adjusted increase of 0.4% with respect to September. The latter evidences -effectively- an improvement in the economy, beyond statistical effects or comparison base. However, just as we should not evaluate activity negatively based on what we learned last month, we should not do the opposite for what was published for October.
Looking at longer series, and avoiding the monthly volatility that can muddy the analysis, we have that, during the last rolling year, the economy has grown below 2.0% and has not exceeded that variation since December 2022. Moreover, if we exclude mining, activity is not able to exceed 1.5% YoY, despite the improvement in the aforementioned margin.
It is true that we are still growing and we are not facing an abrupt recession or deceleration, but I do not know if this is much consolation or if it could even worsen the assessment. I say this because it is one thing to be going through a negative economic cycle, whether due to internal or external variables or a mixture of both, and quite another to have structurally mediocre growth that keeps us stagnant without being able to improve our welfare.
Let's do a simple exercise so that the reader understands the importance of what we are saying.
During the 1990s -so battered lately-, GDP per capita (in purchasing power parity) doubled in 8 years and became three times higher than in 1990 in 20 years. With the per capita growth we are currently exhibiting, it will take approximately 80 years for GDP per capita to double the almost US$33,000 that the IMF estimated for Chile in 2023. I do not know if this fact will bother anyone reading these lines, but at least to me it seems a tragedy.
Our impression is that policy makers waste too much time discussing short-term figures, which are of little importance in the face of the real challenge facing the country: to grow more, better and in a sustained manner. There are many intelligent and capable people proposing ideas to do so, of all political colors, ideologies and tendencies. It would be good to stop and listen a little.
