Fynsa
We can expect that, as far as possible, the next cuts in the TPM will remain in the more conservative range of the corridor presented in the last IPoM.
While the macro framework was maintained, the depreciation of the peso has bothered the Central Bank, which has not wanted to add "more gasoline" to the reduction of the interest rate differential.
At the traditional financial conclave, the Fed chairman noted that the move in rates continues with more upside risks than downside risks, and that he was ready to continue raising them if necessary.
For the Central Bank, the pace of future interest rate cuts is not tied to the magnitude of the first one, thus relativizing the urgency to migrate quickly to a neutral level.
Pan Gongsheng's profile points to a continuity in the path of gradual liberalization of Chinese financial markets.
The sector continues to expand, although adjustments in occupancy and rental rates are observed.
To the reduction of political-institutional risks and highly discounted valuations, we can now add the expectation of aggressive monetary easing going forward.
The probability that the process of convergence to inflation will be interrupted or definitely turned around has fallen significantly, but there are still elements of risk to monitor.
Speeches and communications from the Central Bank Board have only been along one line: it is still too early, risks are high and policy error can be very costly.
Despite the signs of weakness in the economy, we believe that the Central Bank will maintain a more conservative stance: if warranted, it will prefer to cut the rate more aggressively when the time comes, rather than start the cuts earlier and more timidly for fear of making a mistake.
