Fynsa
The sector continues to expand, although there have been adjustments in occupancy rates and rent levels
To the reduction of political-institutional risks and highly discounted valuations, we can now add the expectation of aggressive monetary easing going forward.
The probability that the process of convergence to inflation will be interrupted or definitely turned around has fallen significantly, but there are still elements of risk to monitor.
Speeches and communications from the Central Bank Board have only been along one line: it is still too early, risks are high and policy error can be very costly.
Despite the signs of weakness in the economy, we believe that the Central Bank will maintain a more conservative stance: if warranted, it will prefer to cut the rate more aggressively when the time comes, rather than start the cuts earlier and more timidly for fear of making a mistake.
Common sense suggests that we should wait until the end of the rate-hiking cycle before investing again, but keep in mind that time deposits no longer pay what they did a few months ago, and inflation is also falling.
The Central Bank will remain steadfast in its goal of bringing inflation down to its 3% target within two years, and until that happens, it will not begin to lower the monetary policy rate.
In the short term, the good news should continue: for May we expect the CPI to increase 0.2% with respect to April, which would bring the year-on-year variation to 8.8%.
The Central Bank's constitutional mandate is inflation; therefore, its measures should be aimed at achieving that objective and no other.
Of concern is what is happening with core inflation, which rose 1.6% in March.
