As we well know, the markets have been showing great volatility in most of their assets due to the news flow from the United States, which has caused uncertainty in the short term (Liberation Day). However, when the 90-day pause announced by President Donald Trump was released, there was a relief that was welcomed by global markets.

At the local level, the Central Bank (BCCH), in its April Monetary Policy Meeting, unanimously decided to maintain the TPM at 5.00%. In view of the uncertainty associated with the tariff policy, growth estimates were reduced and inflation estimates were increased. Despite this, the market has not been so affected, with interest rates falling and the peso appreciating.

Opportunity for peso bonds?

Of course it will!!! Many financial market participants are projecting that the rate will remain fixed in July, which opens up additional appetite for nominals. On top of this, inflation is expected to decline rapidly, considering that the real exchange rate remains relatively stable. This is due to the fall in fuel prices and a dissolution of the shocks This is due to lower fuel prices and a dissolution of cost shocks in electricity tariffs, which will absorb or cushion the sudden variation and prevent it from being transmitted directly to users.

Scenarios like this -according to the BCCH- are the ones that push inflation down, especially from the second half of the year, with a projection of 3.8% as of December (somewhat lower than the market estimate, which expects 4.0%), reaching the target during the first part of 2026.

For this reason, the market -anticipating- has turned to fixed-income mutual funds in pesos. As a reference, so far this year net contributions to these funds have exceeded CLP 600 billion, which reflects a migration from more defensive positions in UF, in search of short-term bank bonds (2Y-3Y), mainly from issuers with good performance (AAA), or with a lower rating, but with a higher rate premium. For example, A+ issuers are trading in 6.71% rate zones at a duration of 2-3Y (150-160 bps approximately). These are natural movements depending on what the Central Bank expects and the possible cuts it could make this year.

Likewise, we believe that it is important to see the signals that the U.S. sends us; in simple words: wait to see who throws the first stone. This is better seen by the market and avoids having to retract, as happened the last time the rate was reduced.

Victor Valenzuela

Fynsa Money Desk Operator