Fynsa
Five consecutive declines in the Imacec and a second half of the year that’s off to a rocky start. Fynsa’s analysis lays out the numbers and predicts that the expected recovery will likely have to wait until 2027.
International weather models predict a nearly 90% probability that an El Niño event will develop this winter, with an intensity that could be the strongest in more than a decade. For an economy that is already starting off on a weak footing in 2026, the timing could not be worse.
This week, at the April Monetary Policy Meeting, the Central Bank’s Board agreed to keep the monetary policy rate at 4.5% once again. The decision was adopted unanimously by its members, but we feel that something has changed…
It is not entirely clear which variables or trends will be taken into account when deciding whether to change or maintain the current course of monetary policy. In this brief article, I will attempt to outline what I believe will be included in the dashboard that the Central Bank’s Board will be reviewing when it meets.
The Central Bank announced that it will begin a new international reserves accumulation program, with daily purchases of up to US$25 million per day, starting on August 8, with a duration of 3 years. From our projections, this program was expected. What is striking is the timing.
Global uncertainty and Central Bank decisions have redefined the local landscape. In this environment, peso instruments emerge as an attractive alternative for investors.
The Central Bank adjusts its economic projections, but maintains a cautious approach to global risks that could alter its monetary policy strategy in the coming months.
Despite the caution in monetary policy, short UF durations have clear advantages in terms of stability and profitability.
With inflation more persistent than anticipated, UF-indexed strategies are the key to maximizing returns.
The October CPI does not set alarm bells ringing, nor does it change the downward trajectory that inflation has been on for some time now. It is true that the significant increase in electricity tariffs has delayed this process, but we are opposed to thinking that it has diverted it completely.
