Fynsa
As has been the custom lately, in those weeks with long weekends or possible holidays, our Central Bank is scheduled to publish data, reports or hold a Monetary Policy Meeting. "He who warns does not betray", says the saying, so we are not going to complain now.
This time it was the April meeting, which comes a month or so after the release of the March Monetary Policy Report (MPR). There was some tension there, but the much-talked-about "Liberation DayPresident Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" and everything that followed.
In any case, we believe that it was a statement with few novelties with respect to what was already expressed in the last IPoM, with an international scenario full of uncertainty as a result of the tariff war started by the US at the beginning of the month and the macro-financial impacts it brought. Although there has been a certain moderation and retreat in some of the measures, some damage to global activity has already occurred, reducing growth expectations in the main economies.
At the local level, activity was in line with the central scenario and few conclusions could be drawn from the February Imacec, which was "soiled" by statistical effects and those attributable to the electricity blackout. On the other hand, year-on-year inflation evolved in line, although it was noted that underlying indicators had been below expectations.
All of the above led the Central Bank to maintain the Monetary Policy Rate at 5.0%, as expected by us and the market.
Given the dichotomy of the various scenarios that the country may face in the short and long term, the Central Bank once again emphasizes that it will operate with caution. In view of this, we believe that the pauses will continue until external uncertainty dissipates somewhat, and then execute a couple of cuts before the end of the year.
