Fynsa
In its most recent Economic Conditions OutlookMcKinsey presents a pulse of global business sentiment and reveals that, for the second quarter in a row, changes in trade policy and trade relations have risen to the top have risen to the top spot as the leading risk to global, domestic and corporate growth. Nearly six out of ten executives cite it as a threat, placing it ahead of traditional factors such as inflation or geopolitical conflicts.
Only one-third of those executives-34%-say they are fully confident in their organization's ability to respond to these changing dynamics. And while there is some recent optimism about the immediate past (a smaller percentage describe the global economy as "much worse" than in the previous quarter), the six-month outlook remains mostly downward for both the global and domestic economies.
An interesting finding: the report shows that, although companies identify business risk as a threat, they increasingly see it as an opportunity as well. opportunity. The percentage pointing to the business environment as an option for growth has almost doubled in the last two years. doubled its share in recent quarters, although it is still in the minority (≈ 15 %) as a strategic priority. In terms of the mechanisms adopted, the most frequent include. scenario planning y price adjustments.
For the Latin American region, the report's message takes on additional urgency. Given the region's heavy dependence on exports of raw materials, manufactured goods and agricultural products to large consumer markets (USA, Europe, China), any change in tariffs or renegotiation of agreements could trigger immediate adverse effects.
Limited institutional capacity - in regulatory, customs or logistics integration matters - aggravates the situation: while only one-third of global executives trust their organization to adapt, the proportion in Latin America could be even lower, making it difficult to respond quickly to external shocks.
However, this situation also opens up room for competitive advantage: some Latin American companies are already rearranging their production chains, looking for alternative regional suppliers alternative regional suppliers or reinforcing less vulnerable logistics routes. If global trade fragmentation intensifies, those who best anticipate these shifts could emerge in a position of strength.
A latent risk for countries with low economic diversification: an abrupt drop in external demand or an increase in tariff barriers can translate directly into loss of income, employment and growth. In this regard, the report gives a clear warning: it is no longer enough to respond to the external market - the domestic productive bases must be strengthened.
Fynsa
