Octubre 11, 2024 - < 1 min

U.S. 2024: Keys to understanding a crucial election

At the event organized by Fynsa, experts such as Pablo Argote, Provost Postdoctoral Scholar in the Department of Political Science at the University of Southern California, and Humberto Mora, Deputy Investment Manager at Fynsa Brokerage, analyzed the key factors for the upcoming presidential elections in the United States and their possible impact on the economy and the market.

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Topics included voter behavior, campaign issues and swing states, among others. Here is a summary of what was presented:

Electoral context and trends

The U.S. electorate is polarized, with strong party adherence and growing animosity between Democrats and Republicans. The campaigns focus on cultural issues rather than economic issues: Trump addresses immigration as a threat, while Harris prioritizes issues such as abortion. In addition, there is a clear difference in preferences by gender and a shift in support among Latinos.

Economic and sectoral impact

Historically, the U.S. market is indifferent to the party in power, but each candidate offers different approaches. Trump promotes deregulation and tax incentives, which could favor industries such as energy and manufacturing. Harris, on the other hand, advocates raising taxes on high incomes and corporations, benefiting technology and clean energy sectors.

Future challenges and risks

Rising debt and fiscal deficits represent risks, and both candidates face this challenge, although the outcome could affect the stability of bonds and interest rates. In addition, a strong dollar could complicate the situation for emerging economies in the event of protectionist policies.

 

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