April 25, 2025 - 3 min

The new economic order

Can the United States continue to finance the world at the expense of its productive backbone? If there is no restructuring, the alternative path is attrition and loss of influence.

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The international trade and financial system is going through a silent crisis. It is not an abrupt collapse, but a progressive erosion of the equilibrium that once sustained the global order: the loss of industrial competitiveness of the United States, the overweight of the dollar as reserve currency and the rise of a China that plays by different rules.

In this context,Stephen Mirana close advisor to Donald Trump and nominee to chair theCouncil of Economic Advisersproposes an ambitious restructuring: not giving up the dollar's leadership, but demanding greater reciprocity and correcting the imbalances that are currently weakening the U.S. economy.

His proposal, embodied in the essay"A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System", is much more than a tariff agenda.is much more than a tariff agenda. It is a redesign of the system to regain economic sovereignty and reduce the geopolitical vulnerabilities accumulated over decades.

The dollar is overvalued not by economic merit, but by structural design. The world's central banks accumulate dollar assets as reserves, generating inelastic demand that puts upward pressure on its exchange rate. This makes U.S. exports more expensive and stifles its manufacturing base.

This mismatch is the price of sustaining the global monetary system: for the world to have dollars, the United States must run deficits. In other words, while allies enjoy military protection and financial liquidity, American manufacturing workers foot the bill.

Miran's axes

  1. Tariffs. Far from classical protectionism, Stephen Miran argues that tariffs can raise revenue from abroad without generating inflation, if they are accompanied by a depreciation of the exporting country. The China 2018-2019 case illustrates this: the renminbi fell in step with tariffs, neutralizing the inflationary impact in the US and achieving higher revenue with the same final price for the consumer.
  2. Exchange rate policy. Contrary to the financial mantra that governments do not control the value of their currency, Miran proposes unilateral measures such as imposing tariffs on interest paid to foreign central banks. He even proposes agreements with allies: revalue their currencies in exchange for privileged access to U.S. protection and the purchase of long-term Treasury bonds.
  3. Conditional access to the U.S. market. Access to the world's largest market would cease to be an automatic right and would become a strategic reward. Intellectual property compliance, defense cooperation and non-triangulation of Chinese exports would be the new keys to entry. Trade and national security are intertwined under a logic of incentives and consequences.

The plan may seem disruptive, but Miran does not seek to tear down the system, but to reform it. Market volatility is a risk, yes, but it is also the price of regaining industrial and fiscal autonomy. The key is to implement changes gradually, with clear signals, progressive tariffs and coordination with monetary policy.

The United States cannot continue to finance the world at the expense of its productive backbone. If there is no restructuring, the alternative path is attrition and loss of influence.

This approach is not isolated.Ray Dalioa renowned investor, agrees on the diagnosis, but not on the solution. He comments that the world is living with unsustainable imbalances.

For Dalio, the US must reduce its deficit, reindustrialize and get out of debt. China, on the other hand, must do the opposite: reduce its surplus, increase consumption and curb its dependence on the US market.

Both agree on the essentials:the current system is not sustainable and an orderly rebalancing is preferable to a disorderly adjustment. What is at stake is not only the future of international trade, but also the ability of the United States to redefine its role without losing its power.Stephen Miran's proposal is not a breakup, it is a strategic redesign of the system.. One that demands reciprocity, fiscal efficiency and industrial autonomy.

The ideas presented here are not intended to be closed truths, but rather an invitation to think: CEA Chairman Steve Miran Hudson Institute Event Remarks - The White House.

 

Francisco Muñoz

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