Artificial intelligence is not only revolutionizing technology, it is also changing the world energy map. Every time we use ChatGPT or access cloud services, there is a power consumption that scales to levels unthinkable until a few years ago. And the data center boom in the U.S. is accelerating this trend.

In 2023, data centers will consume about 4.4% of U.S. electricity. 4.4% of U.S. electricity. What is surprising is that, according to Goldman Sachs, in less than two years that share has already doubled to 8%a level that was previously projected only for the end of the decade. Other agencies, such as the U.S. Department of Energy, estimate that by the end of the decade data centers could account for up to 12% of the total. 12% of the total, although the current pace suggests that these projections may fall short.

To put it in perspective: by 2028, AI alone will demand enough energy to power one-fifth of U.S. homes. one-fifth of U.S. households. Data centers don't operate like a home or an office: they operate 24/7They require reliable sources of energy such as gas or nuclearand concentrate such large loads that they strain regional power grids to the maximum. Today there are already complexes with consumptions of more than 1 gigawattequivalent to almost 900,000 homes. 900,000 homes.

 The market continues to see more value in this dynamic. Year to date as of September 9, the ETF of Utilities (XLU) accumulated +9.91%.. Although the sector trades with a P/U 12 months forward (current price divided by projected earnings for the next 12 months), slightly above its historical average, it still has a ~22% discount vs. the S&P 500 multiple. The narrative is clear: A part of the utilities, historically viewed as a defensive sector, today benefits from long-term supply contracts (PPAs) that ensure stability, but also capture the upside of the wholesale market, driven by the data center boom. 

The best thermometer is in the independent power producers (IPPs)which, on average, will accumulate an increase of +45.9% in 2025. Within the S&P 500, the following stand out Constellation Energy (CEG), NRG Energy (NRG) and Vistra Corp (VST), key players in this new cycle.(VST), key players in this new cycle. Unlike regulated utilities, which rely on fixed tariffs, IPPs generate revenue by selling electricity directly into wholesale markets or through long-term bilateral contracts with corporate counterparties. For big tech, IPPs are strategic partners because they allow them to secure prices and reliable supply for 10, 15 or 20 years, which is critical to sustaining AI growth. In practice, IPPs become an essential bridge between technology demand and firm energy supply.

To put into perspective, in June 2025, Constellation and Meta signed a 20-year contract to supply 1.1 GW of clean nuclear power in Illinois. The agreement guarantees Meta carbon-free, 24/7 electricity for the growth of its AI data centers, while for Constellation it means stable revenues, the ability to expand capacity and continuity of the Clinton plant. These partnerships are driving the nuclear renaissance in the U.S., although their success depends on regulatory stability and political support for the sector.

But AI energy pressure is not just a corporate issue; it has also become a geopolitical factor. China already has more than twice as much electricity capacity as the US.with heavy investments in hydroelectricity, nuclear power and transmission. In addition, it maintains electricity reserves that by some estimates cover between 80% and 100% of its installed capacity, allowing it to absorb between 80% and 100% of its installed capacity.This allows it to more comfortably absorb growing IA demand. The U.S., on the other hand, operates with tighter reserve margins and risks a power shortage. and risks the lack of energy becoming its real Achilles heel in the global race for leadership in artificial intelligence.

In conclusion, energy energy appears as one of the main challenges for the sustainable development of AI. And as an investment thesis, we believe that the Utilities sector offers a well-balanced combination: defensive stability coupled with direct exposure to a long-term structural growth engine.

Tomas Haase
Strategy Analyst

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