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Rising tensions between Iran and Israel have revived global concern about a potential disruption in energy supply. In particular, the focus is on the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic point through which approximately 20 percent of the world's energy supplies pass.20% of the world's oil transits through this strategic point. Tehran's threats to close this route have been enough to impact crude oil prices and increase volatility in international financial markets.
Since mid-June, the price of Brent crude has ranged between US$82 and US$88. According to Goldman Sachsa sustained cut of 2 million barrels per day in global supply could boost prices above US$ 82 to US$ 88.90 per barrel, and even more should the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) not respond with increases in production..
In turn, Citi estimates that an interruption of 1.1 million barrels per day from Iran could generate an upside to the US$75-78. In more extreme scenarios, such as the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, analysts project prices in the range US$120 and US$130.
The rise in crude oil prices is not only having consequences in the energy sector. According to the International Monetary Fundan increase of 15% increase in the price of oil could raise global inflation by up to 0.7 percentage points, affecting the course of monetary policies in developed and emerging economies.
The World BankThe World Bank, for its part, has indicated that a moderate disruption in production or distribution could drive Brent crude oil to US$92 in the short term, with a subsequent stabilization near US$ 92 in the short term, with a subsequent stabilization near US$ 92 in the short term, with a subsequent stabilization near US$ 92.84, provided there are no further escalations.
In response to the conflict, financial markets have shown greater sensitivity to risk. There has been an increase in demand for safe haven assets, such as gold and the U.S. dollar, while stock markets have seen more volatile sessions, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty.
The conflict in the Middle East continues to be a key risk factor that directly and indirectly influences energy prices and global macroeconomic conditions. Its evolution will continue to be a determining factor for the markets during the second half of 2025.
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