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In the report World Economic Outlook (April 2025), the International Monetary International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean from 2.5% to 2% in 2025, pointing to the collateral effects of the escalating trade war between the United States and China.
The report warns that uncertainty surrounding global trade policy - and what many are calling a "new era of tariffs" - could further dampen growth. Mexico, with its strong trade link to the U.S., emerges as the most vulnerable country, with a negative growth projection for 2025: -0.3%. Brazil is not spared either, with a slight drop in its forecast.
For Latin America, the implications of lower growth could mean less investment, fiscal pressure and greater dependence on external factors such as remittances and commodity prices. This, at a time when the region needs more stability, according to the document.
The IMF also cut its global growth estimate for this year to 2.8%, the lowest figure since the pandemic (2020). It also reduced its estimate for 2026 to 3%, a drop of 0.3 percentage points.
The international outlook, the report notes, looks quite uncertain, with tariffs at record highs and a highly volatile economic environment.
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