Fynsa
The Peruvian economy closed 2025 exceeding expectations, with estimated GDP growth of 3.2% and controlled inflation ending the year at 2.1%, within the Central Bank's target range. The trade surplus reached record levels, driven by the price of copper and the full operation of the first phase of the Port of Chancay. With these fundamentals, the sol (S/.) begins 2026 maintaining its position as the most stable currency in the region against the dollar.
Although market consensus and BCRP projections estimate sustained growth of around 3.0% by 2026, the first half of the year will be marked by caution ahead of the general elections in April. The main challenge will be to maintain the pace of private investment in a context of "political noise," where the strength of key economic institutions, such as the BCRP, will play a fundamental role in anchoring business expectations.
Historically, electoral processes in Peru generate a temporary contraction in corporate investment decisions. However, 2026 presents a solid "floor" thanks to the momentum of infrastructure megaprojects delivered at the end of 2025. Unlike previous cycles, the decoupling between politics and the real economy seems to have become more pronounced; Peruvian assets have already discounted much of the political risk premium, keeping country risk (EMBI+) at competitive levels (around 160 bps) compared to their Latin American peers.
The market will be watching closely to see what the leading candidates propose with regard to the economic chapter of the Constitution. However, expectations of a more flexible monetary policy on the part of the Fed and the BCRP could create a favorable environment for local fixed income, mitigating the volatility typical of campaign months.
For investors, 2026 calls for selectivity. Defensive sectors such as Energy and Utilities, coupled with the logistics boom in northern Lima due to the "Chancay Effect," are shaping up to be structural winners regardless of the election results. The consensus among strategists at the main local brokerage firms is one of caution: reports suggest maintaining tactical liquidity during the first quarter (Q1) and seeking refuge in corporate debt from exporting companies with dollar-denominated revenues.
The medium-term outlook remains constructive. Once the uncertainty surrounding the second round of elections has been cleared up, business confidence is expected to rebound in the second half of the year, boosting domestic demand and corporate credit once again.
