Fynsa
It was difficult, but it was achieved. After quite some time, the annual variation in the CPI would be just one step away from reaching 3.0% and even slightly below that. An economy that has generally been hovering around its long-term values for quite some time was reluctant to bring inflation to these levels, which made many people nervous.
However, as usual, it is important to tell the whole story. The convergence process took at least a year longer than expected due to the normalization of electricity rates, a phenomenon against which there was little that could be done other than monitor any possible pass-through to other prices in the economy, what we typically refer to as second-round effects. But even without that, the January 2025 adjustment left the level so high that the chances of convergence in 2025 were slim. Once again, just when it seemed we were so close, something happened. The market became nervous, saying that it would not be possible, that the target would have to be changed, with inflationary compensation stuck at 4% and a MPR that was unlikely to fall below 5.5%. So much so that some politicians even introduced a bill to eliminate the UF, thinking that inflation could be eliminated by decree.
In a society dominated by immediacy, magic formulas, and minimal doses, it's easy to lose hope when things don't happen right now. If there is one thing I have learned from endurance sports, it is that what matters is not those super special or legendary workouts; what really makes the difference is consistency, being there even when you don't want to be, when your motivation wants to stay in bed for five more minutes. "Labor Omnia Vincit" (work conquers all, in Latin) is the motto of the school I graduated from, which is now making headlines, but not for the reasons we would all like. Inflation cannot be controlled with a magic wand; it is controlled by working every day to do so. Even when the rest of the world is not cooperating.
Thus, although we may disagree with a certain degree of excessive caution at times, the commitment and actions of the entity responsible for price stability in the country, the Central Bank, are one or two months away from returning to that elusive goal.
After returning to 3%, what's next? Well, we can hardly define the global economic and sociopolitical situation as stable, so I think it's time to prepare for a future crisis that we hope will never happen. A program to accumulate reserves is in the works, which could be reevaluated, along with continued monitoring of the use of digital currencies, the impact of crypto assets, etc. Price stability never ends, nor will the nation's first beacon of light.
