Fynsa
Remember how, not long ago, we wrote a column that talked about the resilience of the local economy and how the most recent activity data would have surprised on the upside? This had generated a kind of puzzle, given that the elements that we usually the elements that we usually used to estimate growth were not aligned with this more positive trend in the aggregate data..
This is why the publication of the National Accounts for 4Q22 (and, therefore, for 2022 as a whole) would be so important, despite the fact that they are published with the longest delay (in fact, there is already data for January).
Reviewing the items, we began to find some answers to our questions. First of all, there was a fairly historically significant correction in the quarter, corresponding to a 0.7 pp downward correction.
Thus, while preliminary Imacec figures showed a 1.6% drop compared to the same period last year, official figures increased this drop to 2.3%. The revision came almost entirely from services activity, particularly transportation.
In addition, there were other revisions for previous quarters, which caused the 2.7% expansion we believed the economy had exhibited during 2022 to decline to 2.4%. economy had exhibited during 2022 was downgraded to 2.4%.
Going to the monthly detail, and taking advantage of the fact that the figures up to January are corrected, we can see some substantive modifications. First of all, there is evidence of an activity that had been much slower than the preliminary data showed, not only in the year-on-year figures mentioned above, but also in those at the margin.
Second, notwithstanding the above, despite the fact that the January January's variation fell from 0.4% YoY to 0.1% YoY (much closer to our estimate), the seasonally adjusted variation was much higher than previously reported. y/y (much closer to our estimate), the seasonally adjusted variation showed a much larger increase than previously reported, which leaves us with mixed flavors.
However, more information is needed to know which signal is stronger for the projection for the rest of the year, more information is needed to know which signal is stronger for the projection for the rest of the year. We mention this because we do not necessarily agree with the reaction of the market, which improved its estimates for 2023 due to this marginal improvement.
Finally, and although much of January's improved performance was due to a rise in services, trade reveals a deceleration rather than the acceleration that was published earlier, This is much more in line with the rest of the variables that usually explain consumption and also with information from surveys and the most recent Business Perceptions Report.
Now we can only wait and wait for more information to see which elements will predominate. For now, we maintain our growth estimate for 2023 at -1.0%.
