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The travel and tourism industry is in the midst of a transformation. After the toughest years of the pandemic, the sector has not only shown clear signs of recovery, but is shaping up to be one of the most important economic drivers of the next decade. is shaping up to be one of the most important economic drivers of the next decade.. However, its evolution will depend to a large extent on the decisions taken today.
A new report published by the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with the consulting firm Kearney, projects that up to 30 billion trips could be made worldwide by 2034, generating nearly $16 trillion in economic activity. worldwide, generating nearly $16 trillion in economic activity. This figure is equivalent to more than 11% of global GDP. But reaching this potential will not be easy: the study warns that tourism is at a crossroads marked by environmental, labor, energy and social challenges.
To address this uncertainty, the report proposes four possible scenarios that could define the future of the industry. The first is a path of unrestricted growthwhere open borders, technology and expanding demand drive a boom in mass tourism. Although economically attractive, this scenario poses major environmental risks, such as increased CO₂ emissions, pressure on natural destinations and infrastructure overload.
The second scenario proposes a more balanced developmentwhere public policies, businesses and travelers prioritize sustainability. In this framework, the aim is to reduce the ecological footprint of tourism through regulations, innovation and greater awareness in travel decisions. Here, growth is more moderate, but more resilient and aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals.
A third scenario anticipates a regional fragmentation of tourism, driven by geopolitical conflicts, regulatory barriers or persistent health risks.driven by geopolitical conflicts, regulatory barriers or persistent health risks. In this case, travel within blocs or zones of influence is favored, which could limit global connectivity and reduce opportunities for countries more dependent on international tourism.
Finally, the fourth scenario envisions a return to the local. In this scenario, travelers prioritize nearby, low-impact and culturally meaningful experiences. The reasons may be multiple: from the rising cost of international transportation to greater climate awareness or the desire to reconnect with one's own. While this could benefit local economies, it would also imply a profound reorganization of the industry.
Beyond the possible paths, the report provides data that illustrate the magnitude of the challenge. Today, tourism generates around 8% of global CO₂ emissions, and if urgent action is not taken, that proportion could rise to 15% in the coming years. In addition, the industry already produces more than 200 million tons of solid waste annually and faces a growing labor crisis.In countries such as the U.S. and the U.K., worker turnover in the sector exceeds 50% per year.
Against this backdrop, the World Economic Forum insists that tourism needs a structural transformation. More sustainable fuels, smart urban planning, resilient infrastructure, new technologies and a more skilled and stable workforce will be key to ensuring a future where travel remains a source of development, but also of regeneration. will be key to ensuring a future where travel remains a source of development, but also of regeneration.
Read the full report here.
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