Fynsa
The evolution of inflation facilitates communication in the face of an imminent cut in the central bank's TPM.
What the figures show us is that the Chilean economy is stagnant.
Despite the signs of weakness in the economy, we believe that the Central Bank will maintain a more conservative stance: if warranted, it will prefer to cut the rate more aggressively when the time comes, rather than start the cuts earlier and more timidly for fear of making a mistake.
The year-over-year decline in the Imacec seems to tell a different story than the seasonally adjusted figure compared with the immediately preceding period.
In the absence of further information, we do not necessarily agree with the market reaction, which improved its estimates for 2023.
Consumers have shown significant resilience, but there are certain things that cannot be ignored, such as lower incomes and reduced savings.
We continue to believe that September would have been only the first of many months that will show negative variation
August's surprise does not even give reason to hope for a softer deceleration: we preliminarily estimate a variation of Imacec in September between -2% and -1.5% YoY.
In the new macro framework, we see little change to the expected growth for 2022, but we do not rule out a further downward adjustment to 2023.
The second-quarter National Accounts figures only confirm what we expected: the economy is slowing down and will continue to do so
