Fynsa
Higher interest rates put pressure on valuations during 2022, but the focus will now shift from valuations to corporate earnings in an increasingly challenging macro environment.
The Central Bank will take into account factors other than inflation in setting its monetary policy, such as the current account deficit, financial conditions, and international trade.
Most baseline scenarios for 2023 assume either a soft landing or a mild recession, under the assumption that inflation will decelerate significantly and that the terminal policy rate would be in the range of 5.0% - 5.25%.
The risk of reducing the MPR and then having to reverse it due to a misreading of the information is much higher than leaving it at 11.25% for longer than appropriate.
The Chilean economy is in such a state of imbalance that it cannot respond in the way it normally would in this type of situation.
For the time being, we continue to expect an increase in the TPM to reach a maximum level of 9.5%.
