Fynsa
In this context of falling rates, it is to be expected that another type of asset will begin to attract attention in the search for better returns.
In our 2024 Asset Allocation Outlook, bonds emerge as a prominent asset class.
Nathan Pincheira and Humberto Mora, of Fynsa, provide their outlook for the economy and investments in the first half of 2023 and for the months ahead.
Our Softlanding baseline scenario is based on a moderation of inflation and greater resilience of activity.
It is quite likely that we will have a good performance in terms of returns in investment portfolios, both in fixed income and equities, in the second half of the year.
A more balanced overall exposure and active management is recommended to address the concentration risk of passive indexes.
The divergence between equities and interest rate levels cannot go much further and should be reversed.
We continue to recommend overweighting less rate-sensitive assets such as cash, value sectors, international equities and real assets.
Most baseline scenarios for 2023 assume either a soft landing or a mild recession, under the assumption that inflation will decelerate significantly and that the terminal policy rate would be in the range of 5.0% - 5.25%.
