Fynsa
For some time now, we have been raising for some time now, we have been raising alerts about the behavior of the labor market and its deterioration, although this has not necessarily been reflected in the unemployment figures published monthly by INE.Although this was not necessarily reflected in the unemployment figures published monthly by INE.
The slowdown in job creation in the private salaried sector, the substantial drop in the demand for labor by companies and the continued weakness of remunerations gave clues of a world of work that was showing signs of deceleration, in line with the rest of the economy.in line with the rest of the economy.
The data that we learned for the rolling quarter ended in March are beginning to change that picture. It is not that the detailed figures have just now worsened, but that the unemployment rate is up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month (to 8.8%) is something that anyone associates with bad news.
It is true that this is not necessarily true - sometimes it increases because more people enter to look for work due to better prospects - but in this specific case, the assessment is not positive. The increase in unemployment occurred for all the undesirable reasons: versus the previous period, 21 thousand people entered (or re-entered) the labor market. However, in the net, 24 thousand jobs were destroyed, so that the number of unemployed increased by 45 thousand people. This is the largest increase in the number of unemployed since July 2020.
By category, the situation does not look much more auspicious. During February, there was a significant increase in public employees, which would have "disguised" in part the decrease in employment in other categories, such as private employees.
This did not happen this time, since salaried employees decreased by 26 thousand positions (23 thousand private and 3 thousand public), which doubles if we add the lower positions in other minor sectors. All this was partially offset by self-employment, which increased by 28 thousand positions.
The outlook for the coming months is not particularly encouraging. Sectoral data continues to show weakness, with worsening in the trade and mining sectors, although with a marginal improvement in manufacturing.with marginal improvement in the manufacturing sector.
The construction sector, which has been the activity that has destroyed the most jobs in the last year, continues to show a negative trend for the coming months. In addition, although some of these behaviors have probably changed after the pandemic, we are entering months with negative seasonality in relation to employment, we are entering months with a negative seasonality in relation to employment, which historically has been accompanied by higher unemployment rates.
Thus, it is quite likely that in the next few months we will be able to exceed 9.0% unemployment, it is quite likely that in the coming months we could exceed the 9.0% unemployment rate. That said, it is increasingly important to give clear signals to the private sector so that, through greater investment, existing jobs can be generated or maintained, to give clear signals to the private sector so that, through greater investment, existing jobs can be generated or maintained.
On the other hand, a greater execution of public investment spending could help to offset the worsening of specific sectors. Taking care of the job, as they say, becomes vital in times like these.
