Fynsa
The Imacec for the seventh month of the year increased 1.8% with respect to the same month of the previous year, a growth mainly explained by the good performance of services and trade, which was partially offset by a drop in the mining sector. Given the high volatility of the latter, we usually analyze the behavior of the non-mining Imacec, which tends to be more stable and correlates better with the future performance of the activity. In this sense, this indicator showed an increase of 2.5%, above the aggregate data.
Anyway, we know that year-on-year variations are sometimes affected by comparison bases, one-time events or things that do not necessarily indicate an economic improvement or worsening. This is why we also analyze seasonally adjusted data, which by statistical methods removes these elements and allows us to make a "fair" comparison, in this case with respect to the previous month. Thus, we can perceive what is happening with short-term trends. In this sense, also during July, the seasonally adjusted variation of the Imacec was 1.0%, the highest in 12 months. This was explained by an impact of 0.56 pp of mining (leaving behind two consecutive months of declines) and 0.44 pp of the rest. Enough to mark a trend? Not at all, but at least it did not continue the more negative performance we have seen recently.
For now, we do not change our perception of what is happening with local activity, which remains relatively stagnant, although not so much due to cyclical elements as to more structural components. However, we can say emphatically that the July Imacec does not show that the economy is weakening, beyond a high base of comparison in 2024. In fact, we believe that in the coming months we will resume growth of around 2.5% (plus or minus tenths), which confirms our expectation for the end of the year of 2.5%.
