Fynsa
We have already written several lines in this space dedicated to growth, or rather, to the lack of it. We have addressed from short-term figures to long-term views on how many of the problems that afflict us (although not all) can be solved through growth.
This time we will talk about the same thing, but mostly as a preparation for what is to come. After a better than expected first quarter and the first figure of the second quarter surprisingly upward, the mood changed, and there was even talk of a turning point. Let me go further: the Imacec figures for May and June will be around 4% and 5%, respectively. At first glance, it would seem that the country has taken off, right?
Well, it is not quite like that. Although April had a better performance than expected, mining had the greatest impact, while other sectors that had been showing a good dynamism -and that supported the hopes of a somewhat more sustained recovery-, such as industry and trade, declined. I must say that what happened in commerce caught our attention, since, at least, the inflow of Argentine tourists has not fallen; it has even shown a greater resilience than we expected. However, the local labor market did experience a slight worsening, especially on the job creation side.
As for the high growth rates that are expected, a large part of them are due to the very low comparison bases of 2024. During May last year, the economy advanced only 0.4% YoY, reflecting a significant seasonally adjusted decline. June, somewhat better in the margin although without fully recovering what was lost in May, showed a year-on-year fall of 0.7%. Therefore, the data for the coming months will be explained more by statistics than by an economic recovery as such.
Let's not get confused. It is not that we are trying to "knock down" what is coming. We are simply cautioning against what we believe will be an endless stream of positive evaluations, back-slapping and complacency. None of that will hold up. The day we see figures that actually come with fundamentals that speak of a recovery -even if they are reflected in a weak year-on-year figure- we will be the first to celebrate. Because that is what it is all about: doing better.
