Fynsa
The economy in 2026 has gotten off to a start as cold as the recent mornings of late, now that we’re just entering the middle of fall. April’s Imacec confirmed this, falling 1.2% compared to the same period last year—which was also the biggest negative surprise for us and the market over these past four months.
Although the seasonally adjusted series rose 0.1% month-over-month, bringing the annualized growth rate to 0.0% quarter-over-quarter, this does not represent an acceleration from the trend growth rate and does not reflect a rebound compared to previous months.
The analysis differs depending on whether one looks at the year-over-year change or the seasonally adjusted series, and it is worth breaking down both figures. On a year-over-year basis, the mining Imacec fell significantly (-11.8% y/y), driven primarily by copper production (information on which company had the greatest impact is not publicly available). This was followed by “Other Goods,” due to the now-familiar poor performance of the fishing industry, which also impacted the manufacturing sector. The non-mining Imacec, meanwhile, rose 0.4% year-over-year, thanks to strong performance in Trade (2.1% year-over-year) and Services (0.8% year-over-year).
When analyzing the seasonally adjusted data, the picture in this area breaks with the trends of previous months. Mining increased by 0.8% m/m SA, accompanied by a 2.3% m/m rise in manufacturing. Other goods showed a similar trend, growing by 0.9% m/m. However, following some positive news last month, both Trade and Services posted declines: 1.0% m/m and 0.2% m/m, respectively.
With one-third of the year's data now available, the outlook has not improved, as it continues to be affected by the same supply-side factors. In the short term, the numbers are not expected to change significantly, likely through August. After that, due mainly to a base effect in the mining sector, we would see sustained year-over-year growth of around 2% or 3%, although this would be insufficient to end the year on a positive note. External uncertainty and the local recovery of the sectors most affected by cyclical fluctuations could change this outlook.
Finally, although we have just lowered our year-end growth estimate to 1.7%, we must factor in a further downward revision due to the surprise in April. The alternative scenario could even mean growth of just 1.2%.
