Fynsa
Our view for the second quarter of 2023 is more cautious due to recent stresses in the banking sector, which imply tighter credit standards and a higher risk of recession.
Our biggest question mark is that a soft landing scenario is already largely built into prices and we don't see much reason for risk assets to continue to rise, amid higher rates and still hawkish language from several FOMC members.
Most baseline scenarios for 2023 assume either a soft landing or a mild recession, under the assumption that inflation will decelerate significantly and that the terminal policy rate would be in the range of 5.0% - 5.25%.
We must not forget that, once the immediate imbalances have been resolved, the growth capacity of our economy is very low.
The first thing we have to understand is that the Chilean economy is in a frank process of deceleration, which did not begin this month, but approximately since the end of last year.
The US yield curve has shown an increase in the implied probability of recession in recent weeks.
The analysis of Humberto Mora, FYNSA's Deputy Investment Manager
Assessing U.S. Recession Risks: If there were indeed a recession, what would it look like?
